2008 Press Releases
UCC Researchers Use “Wisdom of Crowds” to Predict Disease
02.12.2008
Researchers at University College Cork (UCC) School of Medicine have teamed up with Intrade, a Dublin-based technology firm, to develop an innovative forecasting method.
02.12.2008
Researchers at University College Cork (UCC) School of Medicine have teamed up with Intrade, a Dublin-based technology firm, to develop an innovative forecasting method.
By tapping into the “wisdom of crowds”, the team hopes to provide more accurate forecasts of important health indicators such as how many people in Ireland will catch the flu this winter.
The project is being led by Dr Dylan Evans, Lecturer in Behavioural Science at the School of Medicine, UCC, and is funded by an Innovation Partnerships Feasibility Study Award from Enterprise Ireland. Dr Evans and colleagues will carry out a pilot study to investigate possible uses of so-called “prediction markets” to forecast key indicators of public health in Ireland.
Prediction markets are specialized, small-scale financial markets operated to predict future events. The idea is that the collected knowledge of many people, each with a different perspective, will be more accurate than an individual or small group or even experts. Indeed, when they have been used to predict the outcomes of political elections, prediction markets have been found to be more accurate than alternative methods of forecasting. The project at UCC’s School of Medicine will investigate whether these markets would provide equally accurate ways of predicting key indicators of public health and disease, such as the number of people who will catch influenza in Ireland this winter. Such information could be used to guide vital decisions in the HSE, such as how many vaccines to order.
Intrade is considered to be the world’s leading prediction market platform. With over 87,000 registered members from 210 countries, it currently manages over 1,500 contracts drawn from issues of social, political and financial interest around the world. Intrade has supplied valuable data to diverse and eminent organizations such as the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the US Department of Defense. Recently, Intrade accurately predicted the result of the US elections. Chad Rigetti, VP for Business Development at Intrade, is enthusiastic about the collaboration with UCC. “If successful,”, he said, “this research may position Ireland and the collaborators assembled by Dr Evans as global leaders on this emerging topic.”
Dr Evans, who recently moved to Ireland from the UK, said: “Prediction markets could prove very valuable tools for health services around the world, but so far they have not been extensively trialled in medical contexts. It is a tribute to the exciting research environment in Ireland that innovative projects like this get a chance to prove their worth here. In particular, my research has found a welcoming home in the School of Medicine at University College Cork.”
The project began on November 3rd 2008 and will conclude in February 2009.
For additional information on the research project in using prediction markets to forecast public health in Ireland, please contact Dr Dylan Evans at d.evans@ucc.ie
925MMcS
The project is being led by Dr Dylan Evans, Lecturer in Behavioural Science at the School of Medicine, UCC, and is funded by an Innovation Partnerships Feasibility Study Award from Enterprise Ireland. Dr Evans and colleagues will carry out a pilot study to investigate possible uses of so-called “prediction markets” to forecast key indicators of public health in Ireland.
Prediction markets are specialized, small-scale financial markets operated to predict future events. The idea is that the collected knowledge of many people, each with a different perspective, will be more accurate than an individual or small group or even experts. Indeed, when they have been used to predict the outcomes of political elections, prediction markets have been found to be more accurate than alternative methods of forecasting. The project at UCC’s School of Medicine will investigate whether these markets would provide equally accurate ways of predicting key indicators of public health and disease, such as the number of people who will catch influenza in Ireland this winter. Such information could be used to guide vital decisions in the HSE, such as how many vaccines to order.
Intrade is considered to be the world’s leading prediction market platform. With over 87,000 registered members from 210 countries, it currently manages over 1,500 contracts drawn from issues of social, political and financial interest around the world. Intrade has supplied valuable data to diverse and eminent organizations such as the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the US Department of Defense. Recently, Intrade accurately predicted the result of the US elections. Chad Rigetti, VP for Business Development at Intrade, is enthusiastic about the collaboration with UCC. “If successful,”, he said, “this research may position Ireland and the collaborators assembled by Dr Evans as global leaders on this emerging topic.”
Dr Evans, who recently moved to Ireland from the UK, said: “Prediction markets could prove very valuable tools for health services around the world, but so far they have not been extensively trialled in medical contexts. It is a tribute to the exciting research environment in Ireland that innovative projects like this get a chance to prove their worth here. In particular, my research has found a welcoming home in the School of Medicine at University College Cork.”
The project began on November 3rd 2008 and will conclude in February 2009.
For additional information on the research project in using prediction markets to forecast public health in Ireland, please contact Dr Dylan Evans at d.evans@ucc.ie
925MMcS