Stories of Impact
UCC Sustainability Institute Research Warns: 1.5°C Climate Target ‘Impossible’ U
Research co-led by UCC Sustainability Institute Fellow Dr Róisín Moriarty finds Ireland’s ‘no additional warming’ approach to agricultural methane risks undermining global climate goals, exacerbating inequality and food insecurity.
A new study co-authored by Dr Róisín Moriarty, Research Fellow at the UCC Sustainability Institute, has found that if all countries adopted Ireland’s current approach to agricultural methane emissions, limiting global warming to 1.5°C would become impossible, and achieving the 2°C target would be much more difficult.
Published in Environmental Research Letters, the research is the first of its kind to critically evaluate the scientific and equity implications of the “no additional warming” approach adopted for Ireland’s proposed carbon budgets. The study was conducted by scientists from the UCC Sustainability Institute, University of Galway, and the University of Melbourne.
The “no additional warming” approach - also referred to as “temperature neutrality” -aims to stabilise methane emissions at close to current levels, rather than achieving substantial reductions. The authors argue that such an approach fundamentally misinterprets the Paris Agreement’s goals and shifts climate responsibility away from high-emitting, high-income countries.
“The ‘no additional warming’ approach is being used to enable countries such as Ireland and New Zealand - with very high per capita agricultural methane emissions - to continue with business-as-usual or make only slight reductions, while claiming climate action,” said Dr Róisín Moriarty, UCC Sustainability Institute.
The researchers warn that this policy framework prioritises the protection of livestock-heavy, export-oriented agricultural systems in wealthy nations, while constraining the agricultural development potential of food-insecure, lower-income countries.
“This amounts to a form of climate burden-shifting,” said Professor Hannah Daly, Professor of Sustainable Energy at UCC. “‘No additional warming’ essentially grandfather emissions, allowing historically high emitters to maintain their output while requiring more ambitious cuts from others. It’s a form of backsliding on the Paris Agreement.”
The study highlights that the approach performs poorly when compared to more ambitious transition pathways, only temporarily achieving ‘temperature neutrality’ and fails to put countries on track for achieving the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.
“If adopted globally, this approach would undermine efforts to limit global warming and reduce the effectiveness of carbon removals,” said Dr David Styles of University of Galway. “It also grossly underestimates the scale of mitigation required.”
Colm Duffy, co-lead-author of the study, added: “There’s a significant equity issue here. Low-income countries with growing food needs are being implicitly asked to restrain development so high-emitting countries can continue unsustainable practices.”
The paper concludes that national climate policies on methane must go beyond stabilisation and aim for substantial reductions in methane to ensure fair, effective contributions to global climate goals.