Publication of new article in the Journal of Perinatology

5 Jan 2026

We are pleased to announce the publication of a new article in the Journal of Perinatology. The study, led by Dr Jill M. Mitchell, in collaboration with the NPEC presents a practical clinical tool to support early personalised risk assessment and improve counselling for families.

Development of a prediction model for mortality in infants undergoing therapeutic hypothermia for neonatal encephalopathy.

Abstract

Objectives: To develop and internally validate a model predicting neonatal mortality in infants with neonatal encephalopathy requiring therapeutic hypothermia (TH), using national data.

Study Design

Data from 385 infants treated with TH across 19 hospitals (2016–2021) were analysed. Multivariable logistic regression with backward stepwise selection was applied. Discrimination was assessed using the C-statistic, with internal validation by bootstrapping. The THERM (Therapeutic Hypothermia Early Risk Model for Mortality) tool was developed to calculate individualised mortality risk.

Results: Forty-six infants (11.9%) died within 28 days. Four predictors were retained: prelabour Caesarean section, adrenaline use, base excess ≤–22 mmol/L, and seizures during the first day of life. The model demonstrated excellent discrimination [optimism-adjusted C-statistic 0.885 (95% CI: 0.827–0.936)].

Conclusion: Four routinely collected variables predicted mortality in infants undergoing TH. The THERM tool provides a practical resource for clinicians, enabling personalised risk assessment and supporting parental counselling during the first day of life.

Read full article:

Development of a prediction model for mortality in infants undergoing therapeutic hypothermia for neonatal encephalopathy.