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Implications of Accelerated and Delayed Climate Action for Ireland’s Energy Transition under Carbon Budgets

We analyse Ireland’s mitigation pathways under equal per-capita carbon budgets using an energy systems optimisation model. Our findings reveal that delayed mitigation brings forward the need for a net-zero target by five years, risks carbon lock-in and stranded assets, increase reliance on carbon dioxide removal technologies and leads to higher long-term mitigation costs. To keep the Paris Agreement targets, countries must set and meet accelerated mid-term mitigation goals and address energy demand.

Authors

Dr. Vahid Aryanpur, Prof Hannah Daly et al.

Year
2024
Journal Name
Npj Climate Action
Category
Journal Article
Keywords
Global Warming, Energy Transition, Mitigation, Carbon Budgets, Ireland
Project

CAPACITY Publications

Full Citation

Aryanpur, V., Balyk, O., Glynn, J., Gaur, A., McGuire, J. and Daly, H. (2024). Implications of accelerated and delayed climate action for Ireland’s energy transition under carbon budgets. npj Climate Action, 3(1). doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s44168-024-00181-7.

Link to Publication
https://www.nature.com/articles/s44168-024-00181-7

Abstract

Limiting global warming requires the effective implementation of energy mitigation measures by individual countries. However, the consequences of the timing of these efforts on the technical feasibility of adhering to cumulative carbon budgets—which determines future global warming—are underexplored. Moreover, existing national studies on carbon budgets either overlook integrated sectoral interactions, path dependencies, or comprehensive demand-side strategies. To address this

Energy Policy and Modelling Group

Environmental Research Institute, Ellen Hutchins Building, University College Cork, Lee Road, Cork, Ireland T23 XE10 ,

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