ENDURANCE

Project Details

Title: Exploratory analysis of the effect of climate change on forest carbon stores in Ireland (ENDURANCE)
Start Date: 31/03/2026
End Date: 30/03/2029
Funding Body: Environmental Protection Agency
Principal Investigator: Dr Róisín Moriarty
Co-Principal Investigator: Prof Hannah Daly

Logo for endurance project with EPA research logo. Endurance logo is of a green conifer forest

Introduction

Forests are important for many reasons, as living ecosystems, as a source of timber, for jobs and recreation and in the fight against climate change. As the trees in forest ecosystems grow they remove carbon from the atmosphere and lock it way in tree trunks, branches, roots and leaves and eventually in the soil. Growing more forests is a type of climate action and is one way that Ireland can contribute to global efforts to act on climate change.

In 2025, Irish forests were battered by Storm Éowyn, many trees were knocked over and some of the carbon stored in those trees and the soil was released back to the atmosphere. Less carbon stored in forests means weaker climate action.

This project explores the vulnerability of Irish forests, and the carbon they store, to storms and other events that might damage them. This work is being carried out to better understand the risks of this type of climate action, that is, storing carbon in forest ecosystems. This work is important because right now achieving the Climate Council’s carbon budgets depend, in part, on the carbon stored in forests.

This project will explore how climate change is affecting forests and the carbon they store. Working with other Irish experts this project will work to make sure we are making the best use of the many, many datasets that exist in Ireland, for example maps of different types of soil, maps of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere over Ireland and information about carbon storage. This is being done to answer some bigger questions about where and how to store carbon, or how to protect carbon that is already stored, in Irish landscapes.

Project Aims

The overall objective of the ENDURANCE project is to carry out an exploratory analysis of the effects of climate change on forest carbon stores in Ireland with the aim of identifying vulnerabilities and assessing how the vulnerability of forest carbon stores puts Ireland’s long-term climate targets and delivery of carbon budgets at risk. This will allow the examination of the risks of relying on terrestrial carbon stores for carbon dioxide removal.

This project also aims to enhance collaboration to ensure valuable data resources are fully utilised to better understand the evolution of terrestrial carbon stores in Ireland in the face of climate change.

The specific objectives are to

develop a spatially explicit model of carbon sources and sinks in Ireland using the PREBAS forest growth and ecosystem carbon balance model and explore the effects of climate change scenarios on forest carbon stores
identify the main factors influencing emissions and removals on forest land in the context of climate change
identify climate shocks, i.e. high impact, low probability events (e.g. severe drought, heatwaves, biotic disturbances (climate induced insects and pathogens)), and vulnerabilities of forest carbon stores
develop scenario analysis using the SELFS integrated energy, food and land model to quantify the effect of objectives 1 to 3
develop policy insights identifying the climate risk to forest carbon stores and the potential impact for Ireland’s carbon budgets and examining the risks of relying on terrestrial carbon stores for carbon dioxide removal and investigate strategies to enhance resilience of carbon stores
identify research priorities and document a pathway towards comprehensive quantitative modelling of carbon sinks and stores in Ireland by bringing together experts from across the scientific community to work together to utilise the valuable data resources that exist

Acknowledgement and disclaimer

This project is funded under the EPA Research Programme 2021-2030. The EPA Research Programme is a Government of Ireland initiative funded by the Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications.

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ENDURANCE

ENDURANCE

Project Details

Introduction

Project Aims

Acknowledgement and disclaimer

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