Hydrogen as an energy carrier has experienced repeated hype cycles with periodically surging enthusiasm subsequently followed by low levels of deployment and waning enthusiasm. Despite these anticlimactic false dawn events, research points towards important roles for hydrogen in a future decarbonized global economy. The repeated nature of these cycles opens the hydrogen sector to “the boy who cried wolf” effect which may see policymakers hesitate to subsidize and plan for the hydrogen sector considering multiple “false alarms”. This work contextualizes potential cost penalties if a significant future demand for hydrogen arises in a policy environment defined by hesitation.