DIMENSION
Project Details
- Title: DIMENSION: Diffusion & Innovation Modelling of Environmental Sustainability in Ireland’s Passenger Transport
- Start Date: July 2026
- End Date: July 2030
- Funding Body: AECOM
- Principal Investigator & Supervisor: Dr Fionn Rogan
- Co-Supervisor: Dr Tomás Mac Uidhir
- PhD Student: Abdul Mannan
- Advisor: Dr Shane Timmons (ESRI)
- Research Area: Energy policy and modelling
Introduction
The PhD research project will model and develop scenarios for the future of Ireland’s car fleet and passenger transport sector (i.e. cars, public transport, walking and cycling).
1) Car Fleet Modelling: Irish Car Stock Model; survey data on technology preferences & perceptions
2) Car Fleet Scenarios: EV purchase trends, policy scenarios, technology & economic trends
3) Passenger Transport Modelling: changes in activity, structure & intensity; policy scenarios for avoid, shift & improve
Work Packages
Work Package 1:
Car Fleet Modelling: Modelling of the car fleet will combine advanced stock modelling with detailed survey data. The research will update, improve and further develop the Irish Car Stock model, previously used by UCC researchers to inform national climate action scenarios. It will also utilise data from a joint UCC-ESRI project (I-ADOPT), that used a large-scale survey (n=1000) and the Diffusion of Innovations framework to better understand consumer perception of electric vehicles. This dataset can provide insights into the economical and behavioural factors behind vehicle purchase trends.
Work Package 2:
Work Package 3:
Transport Sector Modelling: Updated car fleet modelling will be combined with energy systems modelling of passenger transport using the LEAP Ireland modelling platform. This modelling will utilise metrics of activity (PKM), structure (i.e. modal shares) and intensity (energy efficiency of vehicles, use of biofuels, etc) to develop a suite of policy scenarios (subject to market constraints) that can meet national and EU climate targets as well as exploratory scenarios that examine diverse futures for the passenger transport sector. For example, what would be the impact of lower demand, lighter vehicles, more active travel compared to higher demand, heavier vehicles, more car dependency? This research will respond to calls from the IPCC for more transport modelling using the avoid/shift/improve framework as well as identify challenges with achieving these higher decarbonisation scenarios.
Research Questions
- What are the factors behind volatility in EV purchase trends?
- consumer response to national policy (e.g. changes in grants)
- volatility and variation in the price of petrol and diesel
- changing price of EVs due to international geopolitics
- difference between early and mainstream adopters
- availability of charging infrastructure...?
- What are the implications of these trends (and alternatives) on the car fleet, passenger transport sector and climate policy by 2040/2050?
- What are the maximally different futures (in terms of activity, structure & intensity) for Ireland passenger transport sector?
- How to incorporate detailed behavioural surveys into diffusion of innovations simulation modelling?