Revising the Shadow Price of Carbon used in Public Sector Economic Apprasial

TIMES Ireland Model (TIM)

TIM outputs used by the Department of Public Spending and Reform for the shadow price of carbon in the public spending code.

2024

Revising the Shadow Price of Carbon used in Public Sector Economic Appraisal, Laura Kevany & Niamh Foley Department of Public Expenditure, NPD Delivery and Reform.

Climate Action Plan 2024

TIMES Ireland Model (TIM), LEAP, PLEXOS

The contributions of UCC modelling was cited in the Research & Innovation chapter of CAP2024.  Model outputs from the LEAP model informed the discussion of a number of working groups for the Climate Action Plan 2024.

2024

Climate Action Plan 2024, Department of Environment Climate and Communications.

Climate Action Plan 2023

TIMES Ireland Model (TIM), LEAP, PLEXOS

UCC modelling (particularly TIM) contributed to the analysis underpinning the Sectoral Emission Ceilings which is described in a separate document below. Although not contributing directly to CAP2023, the inclusion of SEC was an important part of CAP2023.  Model outputs from the LEAP model informed the discussion of a number of working groups for the Climate Action Plan 2023.

2022

Climate Action Plan 2023, Department of Environment Climate and Communications.

Research & Innovation Strategy to 2030

TIMES Ireland Model (TIM), LEAP, PLEXOS

Case study of the Energy Policy and Modelling Group UCC, CAPACITY project in which the UCC team use models they have developed (TIM, LEAP and PLEXOS) to understand how changes in Ireland's energy system will impact meeting greenhouse gas emissions reductions targets for the Department of Environment, Climate and Communications.

2024

Research and Innovation Strategy to 2030, Department of Environment Climate and Communications.

National Hydrogen Strategy

TIM, PLEXOS

• Final Energy Demand for domestic sectors were taken from scenarios developed by MaREI to support the Sectoral Carbon Budgets Development in 2022.
  • Reduced Sectoral CB (HL) was chosen as lower Final Energy Demand Scenario to reflect a net zero scenario with greater focus on high electrification and energy efficiency.
  • Reduced Sectoral CB (TO) chosen as higher Final Energy Demand Scenario to reflect a net zero scenario with more open approach to a mix of technologies including hydrogen.
  • International Aviation and Shipping final energy demand was taken separately based on international growth rate predictions.
  • Non-Energy Uses, including the production of chemicals such as ammonia for use in Ireland as opposed importing them, is a high-level assumption and will need to be better refined in future assessments.
  • It is assumed that domestic energy end uses are in the form of gaseous hydrogen and the efficiency of the electrolysis process is 70%.
  • For non-domestic energy uses, it is assumed that these end uses are in the form of a hydrogen derivative such as ammonia, e-methanol etc. It is assumed that an additional 20% energy loss occurs in the conversion from gaseous hydrogen to these fuels.

2023

National Hydrogen Strategy, Department of Environment Climate and Communications.

Securing Ireland's Gas Supplies

TIM, PLEXOS

Looking beyond 2030, MaREI Centre of University College Cork (UCC) have examined
the role of natural gas in the energy transition consistent with Ireland’s carbon budgets up to the period to 2050 across a number of scenarios. The first scenario ‘High demand’ refers to strong growth in electricity demand and second scenario ‘Lower demand’, refers to high renewable electricity capacity and lower electricity demand growth. While it illustrates there may be varying level of natural gas demand in the early 2030s, a similar pattern is observed in terms of level of gas demand consumed in 2040 and 2050 period. Natural gas demand sees a significant reduction of between 68-78% from 2030 to 2040, depending on the scenario considered. This demonstrates the significant reduction of natural gas use anticipated, reducing the reliance on imports during this period and its limited role in our energy system as we reach 2040. UCC MaREI also examined the future of natural gas in Ireland's Energy Transitions consistent with Carbon Budgets using PLEXOS and TIM.

2023

Securing Ireland's Gas Supplies, Department of Environment Climate and Communications.

National Energy Demand Strategy Consultation Paper

TIM, PLEXOS

Contributed to section 1.2 Balancing Energy Demand with Ireland's Climate Ambition "Analysis by MaREI concluded that to meet the SECs, the power sector must rapidly and immediately deploy renewable electricity and manage electricity demand growth. However, most pertinently, it also demonstrated that a quadrupling of renewable electricity generation would be required within the decade to meet the targets. The NEDS is being developed with a view to increasing demand flexibility and the overarching objective of aligning the gas and electricity demand profiles with the carbon budgets. However, during the transition period in the short-medium term (5-10 years), the rate of deployment of renewable energy does not allow for the simultaneous supply of the overall energy demand desired, whilst also meeting the carbon budget requirements. As such, there is a lack of clarity in relation to the sectoral distribution of renewable electricity during this transition period. Primarily directing electrification efforts to the heat and transport sectors may contribute most substantially towards an accelerated reduction of emissions. Alternatively, providing pathways and proposals for industry to electrify may allow for increased economic growth and enhanced financing and innovation of the technologies required to allow for the transition, but may also result in a delay to achieving alignment with carbon budgets. Refernce: Prospects for Carbon Budgets 1 & 2, Prof. Hannah Daly, University College Cork, October 2022. ibid. See reference for relevant details & assumptions. This assumes natural gas is the only fossil fuel in the generation mix from 2023, and the carbon intensity of gas-fired generation is 404 gCO2/kWh. (MaREI)

2023

National Energy Demand Strategy Consultation, Commission for Regulation of Utilities.

What Climate Change Means for Ireland's Public Finances

TIM, LEAP

Section 4.1 The fiscal impacts of the climate change transition. To model the transitional risks to the public finances, we use projections from the TIMES-Ireland Model. This model has been developed by the MaREI Energy Policy and Modelling Group at University College Cork (UCC) since 2010 and were also used to inform Ireland’s 2022 carbon budgets (Balyk, et al. 2022). In this particular document, TIM contributed to the projected CO2 emissions by sector form the "whole syste, carbon budget - tech optimism" scenario. TIM also provided a baseline for transport electrification scenarios. UCC MaREI's financial secor modelling was used as a baseline scenare for building energy rating or cost optimal equivelent cost of retrofitting. UCC's models were also used as a basline scenario for the cost to reduce industry emissions.

2023

What climate change means for Ireland's public finances, Irish Fiscal Advisory Council  Eddie Casey and Killian Carroll

Ireland's Long-term Strategy on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction

TIM, LEAP, PLEXOS

Ireland’s Climate Information Platform, Climate Ireland, was developed on a phased basis under the EPA Research Programme as a "one-stop shop" of information, data and knowledge to support those preparing for, and adapting to, the consequences of climate change.  Climate Ireland was designed and developed by the Centre for Marine and Renewable Energy (MaREI) at University College Cork (UCC) and the Irish Centre for High End Computer (ICHEC) at the National University of Ireland, Galway and as part of the EPA funded project  Climate Information Platform for Ireland (ICIP).  Climate Ireland was designed and developed by the Centre for Marine and Renewable Energy (MaREI) at University College Cork (UCC) and the Irish Centre for High End Computer (ICHEC) at the National University of Ireland, Galway and as part of the EPAfunded project A Climate Information Platform for Ireland (ICIP).  Climate Ireland was designed and developed by the Centre for Marine and Renewable Energy (MaREI) at University College Cork (UCC) and the Irish Centre for High
End Computer (ICHEC) at the National University of Ireland, Galway and as part of the EPAfunded project A Climate Information Platform for Ireland (ICIP). Climate Action Plan 2021 and its successor Climate Action Plan 2023 implement measures to deliver Climate Ireland as the national platform for data, information and decision supports on climate impacts and adaptation. It is important that security of the resource in the longterm is ensured, to allow for the broader and more in-depth planning required towards 2050.

2023

Long term Strategy on Greenhouse Gas Reductions, Department of Environemnt Climate and Communications.

Summary of Analysis to Support Preperation of the Sectoral Emissions Ceilings

TIM, LEAP, PLEXOS

In April 2022, UCC was requested to undertake energy systems modelling analysis to inform the development of Sectoral Emissions Ceilings as part of the Government’s carbon budgeting programme. This work took place under the CAPACITY project, part of the DECC-fundedClimate Action Modelling Group (CAMG). UCC develops and applies several energy modelling analytical tools in order to assess the impacts of climate and energy policies and technology, market and demand dynamics. One such modelling tool, the TIMES-Ireland Model (TIM), is an energy systems optimisation model which quantifies cost-optimal pathways for the energy system (encompassing the primary energy supply, power, transport, buildings and industry sectors) to meet future energy demands. Given projections and scenarios of future climate policies, technology and fuel costs, availabilities and efficiency and alternate energy demand futures, TIM projects energy technology investments, fuel flows and marginal energy and CO2 abatement costs across all sectors.
The core TIMES-Ireland Model is peer-reviewed with the documentation and model inputs available open source, and in 2021 UCC fed into the Climate Change Advisory Council deliberations on the national carbon budget with this model2. For the Sectoral Emissions Ceilings analysis in April 2022, UCC used this model to examine the following questions:
1. What energy system pathways are required for sectoral carbon budget allocations consistent with each energy system sector meeting a decarbonisation trajectory implied from the “upper ranges” in the Climate Action Plan 2021?
2. What additional efforts and investments would be required for the energy system to decarbonise should sectors be required to exceed the “upper ranges” in Climate Action Plan 2021, which would be required in the case that other sectors (Agriculture and LULUCF) did
not achieve the upper target range?
3. What is the role of lower energy demands and/or potential technology breakthroughs to 2030? Full results of the study are available on an interactive web-app: https://epmg.netlify.app/tim-carbon-budgets-2022/results

2022

Summary of Analysis to Support Preperation of the Sectoral Emissions Ceilings, Department of Environment Climate and Communications.

A Review of Requirements and Constraints on Biofuels in Ireland

TIM, LEAP

Prior to instigating this work, the Department had engaged the Energy Policy and Modelling Group (EPMG) from UCC to carry out an analysis of the transport energy requirements to meet two scenarios:
a) the Climate Action Plan 2021 target of B20 / E10 by 2030; and
b) an increased target of a B25 / E10 or B30 / E10 by 2030. In Section 2 we first detail the findings from the EPMG’s modelling of Ireland’s energy demand in the transport sector, the output from NORA’s transport energy model, and compare the result from
both models. The purpose of this is to understand the range of Ireland’s possible renewable energy requirements this decade. EPMG used two models to calculate the energy requirements: the TIMES-Ireland Model (TIM) and the LEAP model. The TIM model is being developed at UCC to inform future possible decarbonisation pathways for the Irish energy system. It is supplied with information on the Irish energy system as it is today, a set of constraints, including on emissions, and the best available projections for what the future technology and fuel options are. It then finds the lowest-cost pathway for Ireland’s entire energy system, for electricity, transport, industry, residential and commercial, and fuels such as hydrogen and bioenergy, to reduce emissions to meet the target. It accounts for all the linkages in the system – rather than transform it one piece at a time, it transforms the entire system, accounting for all the sector couplings and trade-offs.
The second model, LEAP, is a simulation model of Ireland’s energy system. The current version of the model is designed to examine individual policy measures, such as 845,000 electric vehicles or 20% blend of biodiesel. In contrast with the TIM model, for the LEAP model, the bioenergy blend is an input to the model. The impact of all policy measures – individually or combined – on CO2 emissions can be assessed. In summary, the two EPMG models forecast the following energy requirements for 2025 and 2030, for biodiesel and bioethanol.

2022

A Review of Requirements and Constraints on Biofuels in Ireland Arising from RED II and National Targets, Department of Transport.

Climate Change Advisory Council Carbon Budget Technical Report

TIM

Section 3.1.1 Implications for action - energy. TIM modelling demonstrated that significant changes in society and the economy would be required to meet the carbon budgets. Across all scenarios modelled, it is clear that the short time-horizon to 2030 requires a faster energy system transition than the natural renewal of many technologies, so early retirement will be needed in some cases. Overall, use of fossil fuel falls from 90% of primary energy demand in 2018 to 49-54% in 2030. The carbon budget scenarios for the energy sector suggest a need to maximise the electrification of cars and vans with an associated requirement for expansion of charging infrastructure. The scenarios see a range of between 600,000 to 1,500,000 battery electric vehicles by 2030 to meet targets along with 130,000 battery EV vans. The more ambitious scenarios for the energy sector would effectively mean all new car registrations would have to be battery electric vehicles before 2030 with significant early scrappage of ICE vehicles. Additional biofuel blending will also be necessary. A reduction in transport demand and mode switching from private car transport to public and active transport could reduce the costs of transition as well as having important co-benefits related to improving health and easing congestion. Land use planning and public transport infrastructure would have an important role to play in this. The modelling suggests a complete removal of coal and peat for residential heating and up to 600,000 retrofits between 2020 and 2030. For reference the recently published Housing for All Strategy committed to the retrofit of 500,000 houses to B2 or cost optimal standard by 2030, of which 35,000 would be houses owned by local authorities. This would mean an 80% reduction in kerosene use and large scale electrification for home heating. Heat pumps or electrification are also foreseen for space heating in the commercial sector. District heating can be an important pathway for residential heating in urban areas. The modelling also foresees fuel switching for industrial heat and emissions savings in the cement sector from carbon capture and storage in the period to 2030.

2021

Carbon Budget Technical Report, Climate Change Advisory Council

Valuing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Public Spending Code

TIM

The research relied upon in this study regarding abatement costs came from the modelling work undertaken to support the national mitigation plan. The goal of the research UCC and the ESRI were commissioned to undertake for the National Mitigation Plan was to analyse the cost implications of Ireland’s medium and long term ambitions in transitioning to a low carbon economy. The analysis examined the energy-component of Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions in those sectors outside of the Emissions Trading Scheme. What this means in practice, is that the research work focused on energy use in the transport, residential and services sectors. Emissions in the other non-ETS sectors (i.e. agriculture and waste) were assumed to be in line with EPA projections. The UCC/ESRI modelling suggests that the cost of decarbonisation is likely to increase sharply to 2025 but will then decrease to 2030 before accelerating again to meet the more ambitious national policy position 2050 goals. This increasing cost is reflected through a shadow price of carbon that increases faster over the period 2030 – 2050 than the test discount rate (4%).

2019

Valuing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Public Spending Code, Laura Kevany, Climate Change Unit, DPER