Academics associated with the work:

Hannah Daly, Paul Deane, Fionn Rogan, Sustainability Institute, University College Cork.

Evidence of policy outcome referencing the role of the research:

Page 46 of the National Hydrogen Strategy states that "Final Energy Demand for domestic sectors were taken from scenarios developed by [the Sustainability Institute, formally known as MaREI] to support the Sectoral Carbon Budgets Development in 2022."

Research undertaken that informed orunderpinned the policy outcome:

The UCC team developed energy systems modelling that quantified sectoral carbon budget development pathways using the TIMES Ireland Model. In addition, UCC produced additional scenarios of 'low energy demand' to assess the impact of reduced consumption trends on the mitigation pathways (Gaur et al, 2022).

Key learnings for you from this research-policy bridging process

Translating the research results into policy insights and engaging with policy makers is critically important in bridging between research and policy. Engagement here with the Department of Energy, Climate and Communications team that was developing the National Hydrogen Strategy was critically important in this case study. A number of meetings discussing UCC energy scenario results and the potential demands for hydrogen in different sectors (electricity, transport and heating) proved very useful in providing clear insights to the policy system.

SDGs impacted 7, 13

Government Output:

Department of Climate, Energy and the Enviornment Research and Innovation Strategy to 2030

Academics associated with the work:

Brian O Gallach6ir, Fionn Rogan, Paul Deane, Hannah Daly, Sustainability Institute, UCC

Evidence of policy outcome referencing the role of the research:

Page 15 of the strategy highlights the role of modelling in informing national energy and climate policy and highlights the significant contribution from UCC in this regard, "changing Ireland's energy system is essential to meeting our emission reduction targets. The scale and timing of the changes required is very challenging with many open questions. To answer these the UCC team has developed and shared a series of findings over the past three years using their modelling techniques. Their findings have informed, for example, the emissions reductions targets in the Programme for Government, and the economywide carbon budgets and sectoral emissions ceilings which underpin the annual Climate Action Plans."

Research undertaken that informed or underpinned the policy outcome:

The research referred to in this strategy is undertaken within the CAPACITY project, in which the UCC team use models they have developed over many years (TIM, LEAP and PLEXOS) to understand how changes in Ireland's energy system will impact meeting greenhouse gas emissions reductions targets for the Government. UCC has published research on how to achieve policy impact from research Translating Research Results into Policy Insights.

Key learnings for you from this research-policy bridging process

Pro-actively bridging between research and policy can be challenging but also very fulfilling. Seeing the impacts showcased in the national energy and climate innovation research strategy shines a light on this important work. Reflecting, publishing and presenting on the experiences of how to achieve policy impact from research can support the process and improve the methods.

SDGs impacted: 7, 13.

Academics associated with the work:

Hannah Daly, Fionn Rogan, Brian O' Gallachoir, Olexander Balyk and Tomas Mac Uidhir, Sustainability Institute, University College Cork.

Evidence of policy outcome referencing the role of the research:

On page 119 of theClimate Action Plan 2023 , it states "DPER is currently working with UCCto revise the shadow price of carbon, informed by updated research on the marginal abatement cost of reaching our climate targets." Also page 280 refers to Climate Ireland that was established by UCC. "Climate Ireland ... plays a key role in increasing awareness of, and building capacity for, adaptation planning through one-to-one support and the provision of tailored adaptation planning workshops and seminars."

Research undertaken that informed or underpinned the policy outcome:

UCC energy systems modelling contributed quantification of analysis relating carbon budget pathways Balyk et al. 2022, diffusion rates of different energy technologies Mac Uidhir et al, 2022 and role of local authorities in mobilising climate action.

Key learnings for you from this research-policy bridging process

Translating the research results into policy insights and engaging with policy makers is critically important in bridging between research and policy. An important mechanism utilised for Climate Action Plan 2023 was the establishment by the Department of Energy, Climate and Communications of working groups for a number of the chapters. These working groups include 6 researchers from UCC.

SDGs impacted 7 & 13

Academics associated with the work:

Hannah Daly, Paul Deane and Fionn Rogan, Sustainability Institute, University College Cork.

Evidence of policy outcome referencing the role of the research:

Page 11 of the National Energy Demand Strategy states ''Analysis by the MaREI Research Centre [Sustainability Institute] concluded that ... the power sector must urgently deploy renewable electricity generation and manage electricity demand growth and demonstrated that a quadrupling of renewable electricity generation would be required within the decade ... in certain scenarios" and also references work by the Sustainability Institute on page118.

Research undertaken that informed or underpinned the policy outcome:

The research that informed this policy impact was future scenario analysis undertaken by the Energy Policy and Modelling Group at UCC led by Prof. Hannah Daly using the TIMES Ireland Model Balyk et al 2022 that was supplemented with a policy brief that Prof. Daly prepared "Prospects for Carbon Budgets 1 & 2", which the National Energy Demand Strategy cites on page 12.

Key learnings for you from this research-policy bridging process

The Commission for the Regulation of Utilities requested quarterly meetings from the UCC team to keep regularly informed about the policy insights arising from the energy systems modelling research being carried out. This is in part enabled by UCC securing a contract with the Department of Climate, Energy and the Environment for the CAPACITY (Climate Action Pathways & Absorptive Capacity) project, enabling UCC to enhance the absorptive capacity of the policy system to utilise the insights from UCC's energy modelling tools.

SDGs impacted: 7, 13.

Ireland's Oireachtas approved Carbon Budgets on 6th April 2022 for the period 2021-2025 (195 Mt CO2) and 2026-2030. CCAC Carbon Budgets Technical Report.

Academics associated with the work: 

Hannah Daly, Brian O'Gallachoir, Andrew Smith (UCC), Lisa Ryan, Aoife Aherne, Paul Price (UCD) and David Styles (UL).

Evidence of policy outcome referencing the role of the research:

The Government note on the agreed carbon budgets (referred to above) stated that "Modelling and analysis undertaken by University College Cork, Teagasc and University of Limerick informed the CCAC's calculations for the carbon budgets. This modelling illustrated the quantity of GHGs that would be emitted under difference scenarios, that ultimately lead to Ireland meeting the overall target of 51% reduction in GHGs by 2030".

Research undertaken that informed/underpinned the policy outcome:

The Climate Change Advisory Council (CCAC) established a Committee on Carbon Budgets that considered UCC modelling on the energy system Carbon Budget Scenarios for Ireland's Energy System, Teagasc modelling on agriculture and UL modelling on land use. This research is summarised in the Carbon Budget Technical Report, along with the proposed carbon budgets that were adopted Carbon Budgets.

Key learnings from this research-policy bridging process

The Climate Change Advisory Council Committee on Carbon Budgets effectively established an innovative mechanism for policy co-production between researchers, State Agencies and Government Departments. It highlights the fourth dimension of bridging between research and policy, from informing, engaging underpinning and co-producing policy. An additional dimension was the researchers being called before an Oireachtas (Parliamentary) Committee to provide evidence based on their research findings.

SDGs impacted: 7, 13, 15

Academics associated with the work:

Paul Deane, Sean Collins, Brian O' Gallachoir, UCC in collaboration with Dolf Gielen, Asami Miketa, Deger Saygin and Laura Guiterrez in IRENA (international Renewable Energy Association)

Evidence of policy outcome referencing the role of the research:

The new EU Renewable Energy Directive referenced an EU-IRENA report Renewable Energy Prospects for the EU  which stated in the Executive Summary that "Adispatch model based on Plexos software and developed in co-operation with University College Cork";

Research undertaken that informed or underpinned the policy outcome:

The authors modelled the EU power system and undertook a number of scenarios with different levels of renewable generated electricity. The results showed that the EU could integrate a 50% share of renewable electricity by 2030. This was published in the journal Energy Strategy Reviews. This research then underpinned the above mentioned collaborative EU IRENA report and the increase in RE target.

Key learnings for you from this research-policy bridging process

Collaboration and partnership with organisations is more impactful than individual research. The partnership between UCC and IRENA was hugely beneficial both from a research perspective and in terms of impact. IRENA hosted one of UCC's PhD researchers for six months, which enabled this collaboration.

SDGs impacted 7 & 13

Academics associated with the work:

Paul Deane, Brian O Gallachoir, Fiann Rogan, Alessandro Chiodi, Sustainability Institute, UCC and John Curtis, ESRI.

Evidence of policy outcome referencing the role of the research:

Yes, Page 34 of the White Paper states that "During 2013, the Department of the Environment, Community and Local Government (DECLG) commissioned the Economic and Social Research Institute {ESRI) and University College Cork {UCC) to provide technical advice and guidance on the development of a Low Carbon Roadmap for Ireland."

Research undertaken that informed or underpinned the policy outcome:

The UCC work in collaboration with ESRI focussed on developing Ireland's first Low Carbon Energy Roadmap (i.e. identifying ways of achieving long term deep [80% - 95%] reductions in energy related CO2. Emissions). This built on UCC's peer reviewed research using the Irish TIMES energy systems model Chiodi et al 2015 that built future energy scenarios for Ireland an compared the results in terms of energy technology, energy efficiency and renewable energy.

Key learnings for you from this research-policy bridging process

UCC academics met with Department officials over an eight week period of summer of 2015 to support the development of the White Paper, discussing energy security and energy affordability as well as emissions reduction. This engagement went beyond communicating research findings, but critically also about listening to the policy practitioners needs, and developing a clear understanding of the policy making process.

SDGs impacted 7, 13

Government Policy Output:

Your Journey Counts

Academics associated with the work:

Vera O'Riordan, Tomas Mac Uidhir, Fiann Rogan, Hannah Daly, Brian 6 Gallach6ir

Evidence of policy outcome referencing the role of the research:

Why your journey counts webpage quotes: "The above insights have been distilled from a UCC study published in 2022 which calculated the CO2 emissions from Irish passenger transport according to trip distance, mode and purpose"

Research undertaken that informed or underpinned the policy outcome:

Vera O'Riordan, Fionn Rogan, Brian O Gallachoir, Tomas Mac Uidhir, Hannah Daly, (2022) How and why we travel - Mobility demand and emissions from passanger transport.

Key learnings for you from this research-policy bridging process

This research was published in 2022 and the team (listed above) made an effort to publicise the findings in the form of policy briefs and through other social media channels. This worked because subsequently the lead author (VOR) was invited (by D/Transport) to contribute insights from the paper to the public information campaign. At subsequent meetings about this, the value of the research being peer-reviewed and published in scientific journals was repeatedly cited as giving confidence to the D/Transport in relying on it. But it's also apparent that the initial outreach that the team did was crucial in bringing the research to the attention of D/Transport.

SDGs impacted 11, 13

Government Policy Output:

Valuing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Public Spending Code

Academics associated with the work:

Hannah Daly

Evidence of policy outcome referencing the role of the research:

Yes. The value for carbon in public investment appraisal now uses outputs from the TIMES-Ireland Model. "Modelling to calculate the marginal abatement cost associated with the agreed sectoral emissions ceilings was undertaken by UCC MaREI using the TIMES Ireland Model (TIM}, which is an optimisation model of the Irish energy system" Revising the Shadow Price of Carbon used in Public Sector Economic Appraisal.

Research undertaken that informed or underpinned the policy outcome:

Modelling of Ireland's energy system under legal carbon budgets was undertaken using the TIMES Ireland Model.

Key learnings for you from this research-policy bridging process

Following the conclusion of the modelling, engagement with Department officials raised a number of key policy questions regarding the most appropriate way to translate the modelled marginal abatement costs into a practical shadow price of carbon for use in public economic appraisal.

1. One Value vs Separate ETS and Non-ETS Values

2. Post-2050 Shadow Price of Carbon

Applying the proposed approach to the policy questions outlined above to the modelling outputs provided by UCC, a schedule of shadow price of carbon values was derived.

Climate Change Advisory Council Carbon Budget Technical Report

Academics associated with the work:

Hannah Daly, Vahid Aryanpur, Brian O' Gallachoir, Sustainability Institute, University College Cork.

Evidence of policy outcome referencing the role of the research:

Section 3.1.1 Implications for action - energy. 

Research undertaken that informed or underpinned the policy outcome:

TIM modelling demonstrated that significant changes in society and the economy would be required to meet the carbon budgets. Across all scenarios modelled, it is clear that the short time-horizon to 2030 requires a faster energy system transition than the natural renewal of many technologies, so early retirement will be needed in some cases. Overall, use of fossil fuel falls from 90% of primary energy demand in 2018 to 49-54% in 2030. The carbon budget scenarios for the energy sector suggest a need to maximise the electrification of cars and vans with an associated requirement for expansion of charging infrastructure.

The scenarios see a range of between 600,000 to 1,500,000 battery electric vehicles by 2030 to meet targets along with 130,000 battery EV vans. The more ambitious scenarios for the energy sector would effectively mean all new car registrations would have to be battery electric vehicles before 2030 with significant early scrappage of ICE vehicles. Additional biofuel blending will also be necessary. A reduction in transport demand and mode switching from private car transport to public and active transport could reduce the costs of transition as well as having important co-benefits related to improving health and easing congestion. Land use planning and public transport infrastructure would have an important role to play in this. The modelling suggests a complete removal of coal and peat for residential heating and up to 600,000 retrofits between 2020 and 2030. For reference the recently published Housing for All Strategy committed to the retrofit of 500,000 houses to B2 or cost optimal standard by 2030, of which 35,000 would be houses owned by local authorities. This would mean an 80% reduction in kerosene use and large scale electrification for home heating. Heat pumps or electrification are also foreseen for space heating in the commercial sector.

District heating can be an important pathway for residential heating in urban areas. The modelling also foresees fuel switching for industrial heat and emissions savings in the cement sector from carbon capture and storage in the period to 2030.

Key learnings for you from this research-policy bridging process

One of the strongest lessons was that policy impact did not occur simply because researchers produced a high-quality model. Instead, impact resulted from iterative engagement between researchers, the CCAC, Government Departments and other technical experts throughout the carbon budget development process. The TIMES-Ireland Model outputs were refined through repeated discussions rather than being delivered as a one-off report

SDGs impacted 7 & 13

Summary of Analysis to Support Preparation of the Sectoral Emissions Ceilings

Academics associated with the work:

Balyk, O., Glynn, J., Aryanpur, V., Gaur, A., McGuire, J., Smith, A., Yue, X., and Daly, H., Sustainability Institute, University College Cork.

Evidence of policy outcome referencing the role of the research:

Referenced in Summary of analysis to Support Preparation of the Sectoral Emissions Ceilings and also provided inputs to the Climate Change Advisory Council Technical Report on Carbon Budgets which is also referenced. 

Research undertaken that informed or underpinned the policy outcome:

In April 2022, UCC was requested to undertake energy systems modelling analysis to inform the development of Sectoral Emissions Ceilings as part of the Government’s carbon budgeting programme. This work took place under the CAPACITY project, part of the DECC-funded Climate Action Modelling Group (CAMG). UCC develops and applies several energy modelling analytical tools in order to assess the impacts of climate and energy policies and technology, market and demand dynamics. One such modelling tool, the TIMES-Ireland Model (TIM), is an energy systems optimisation model which quantifies cost-optimal pathways for the energy system (encompassing the primary energy supply, power, transport, buildings and industry sectors) to meet future energy demands. Given projections and scenarios of future climate policies, technology and fuel costs, availabilities and efficiency and alternate energy demand futures, TIM projects energy technology investments, fuel flows and marginal energy and CO2 abatement costs across all sectors. 

The core TIMES-Ireland Model is peer-reviewed with the documentation and model inputs available open source, and in 2021 UCC fed into the Climate Change Advisory Council deliberations on the national carbon budget with this model.

For the Sectoral Emissions Ceilings analysis in April 2022, UCC used this model to examine the following questions:
1. What energy system pathways are required for sectoral carbon budget allocations consistent with each energy system sector meeting a decarbonisation trajectory implied from the “upper ranges” in the Climate Action Plan 2021?
2. What additional efforts and investments would be required for the energy system to decarbonise should sectors be required to exceed the “upper ranges” in Climate Action Plan 2021, which would be required in the case that other sectors (Agriculture and LULUCF) did not achieve the upper target range? 
3. What is the role of lower energy demands and/or potential technology breakthroughs to 2030? Full results of the study are available on an interactive web-app: Netlify

Key learnings for you from this research-policy bridging process

Policy-support research must be adaptable, allowing evidence to evolve alongside changing economic, technological and political conditions.

SDGs impacted: 7, 13.

Securing Ireland's Gas Supply

Government Output:

Securing Ireland's Gas Supply

Academics associated with the work:

Brian O Gallachoir, Paul Deane, Sustainability Institute, UCC

Evidence of policy outcome referencing the role of the research:

Referenced on page 9, 10 & 24 of Securing Ireland's Gas Supply Government Policy.

Research undertaken that informed or underpinned the policy outcome:

University College Cork (UCC) have examined the role of natural gas in the energy transition consistent with Ireland’s carbon budgets up to the period to 2050 across a number of scenarios. The first scenario ‘High demand’ refers to strong growth in electricity demand and second scenario ‘Lower demand’, refers to high renewable electricity capacity and lower electricity demand growth. While it illustrates there may be varying level of natural gas demand in the early 2030s, a similar pattern is observed in terms of level of gas demand consumed in 2040 and 2050 period. Natural gas demand sees a significant reduction of between 68-78% from 2030 to 2040, depending on the scenario considered. This demonstrates the significant reduction of natural gas use anticipated, reducing the reliance on imports during this period and its limited role in our energy system as we reach 2040. UCC MaREI also examined the future of natural gas in Ireland's Energy Transitions consistent with Carbon Budgets using PLEXOS and TIM.

Key learnings for you from this research-policy bridging process

Scenario modelling supports better policy by preparing decision-makers for uncertainty rather than attempting to eliminate it.

SDGs impacted: 7, 13.