Speech by Dr Michael P. Mortell,
President, The National University of Ireland, Cork
at the conferring of Medical and Arts Degrees on Thursday, 16 October, 1997 at 10.00 a.m.
 
Future Numbers in Third Level Education

I want to say a few words about the work of a committee - the De Buitléir Committee - which could have a profound effect on the number of places available in the third level sector for the next 15 to 20 years. The terms of reference of the de Buitléir Committee are summarised:

"to advise on the appropriate level of provision of education and training places for school leavers and others (including the issues of rationalisation of existing provision)"

We all know about the "Points System" - the system by which a student's Leaving Certificate results determines what course in which university that student enters. Everyone can understand that a scarcity of places, compared with the demand, drives up the point score for that particular course. It seems to me that the only solution to the "points problem" is to have a better balance between the supply of places and the demand for them. I note that the Minister for Education has set up a committee to look at this problem - and I wish it well.

The de Buitléir Committee is looking at a longer term question - what should the provision of places be in third level over the next 20 years. This is long term strategic planning vital for the future prosperity of the whole nation.

Why am I concerned about the work of the Committee? This lies in the context from which it was set up. There was a base-line study carried out in 1994-95 by an expert group - the Steering Committee - on behalf of the Department of Education which gave projections of student numbers in Third Level for the next 10 years. The obvious question is: if there was a study in 1995, why carry out another study just a few years later? The answer lies in the attitude taken by the Department of Finance to the original study. They objected to the conclusions of the Main Report and insisted on their own view being incorporated into a Minority Report.

The Majority Report predicted a growth of 34% in the Third Level Sector by the year 2006 followed by a decade of stability. The Minority Report, or the Department of Finance Report, predicts a growth of 17%, ie half that of the Majority Report. In terms of numbers of places available for prospective students the difference between the two projections is about 10,000.

ie, if the Majority Reportpredictions are correct we will be 10,000 places short by the year 2006, ie 10 years from now.

In order words, if you have children, nieces or nephews, or indeed, if you want to return to full time third level education yourself in 10 years time, then they or you will have to compete in a situation where demand exceeds supply by 10,00 places - the "Points System", or some variant of it, will be alive and well in 2006!

The purpose of the de Buitléir Committee, from the point of view of the Department of Finance, is to depress the projections and thus put a cap on spending.

Is it probable the Department of Finance projections are correct, and the Majority Report is wildly optimistic?

The projections have a base-line year of 1994/95. In 1996/97, the actual number of students in Third Level exceeded the Majority Report projections by 2,000. And so the Department of Finance projection at this time, after only 2 years, is wrong by more than a factor of 2.

In this year, there is an increased intake due to the "Skills Programme" and so the actual numbers will again exceed those in the Majority Report.

Why is it so important for the nation that we get these projections right and then allocate the appropriate resources?

It is now common place that our future prosperity depends on a wide diffusion of education throughout our society.

Let me give you some quotes.

From the OECD: "Governments increasingly wish to encourage participation in education and training. This is … a response … to what has emerged as the leitmotif of development and progress in the contemporary world: economic growth fuelled by advanced knowledge and skills widely diffused throughout society."

IDA Ireland:
There is "the need to recognise education as our single most important substantial competitive advantage and allocate resources accordingly".

"the Department of Finance, which controls the Government's purse strings, sees Education as a spending department, it should be viewed as a key strategic economic investment".

So the reason I bring the work of the de Buitléir Committee to your attention is because its findings can drastically effect the future of this country, as a whole, and that of individuals. If it gets the numbers right we have the basis for an expanding economy and wider prosperity. If it underestimates the numbers, the economy and prosperity will be choked off below the nation's potential.