Empirical Analysis to Improve Modelling of Future Total Final Consumption Gas Demand

Empirical Analysis to Improve Modelling of Future Total Final Consumption Gas Demand

Project Title: Empirical Analysis to Improve Modelling of Future Total Final Consumption Gas Demand

Funding Body: Bord Gais Eireann

Period: 2010-2013

Researcher: Fionn Rogan

Project Description:

Total Final Consumption (TFC) gas demand has been characterised by two trends that are poorly understood in detail: residential gas demand has grown strongly since 2000, but has lagged the corresponding growth in customer numbers & industry and services (I/C) gas demand has been affected more sharply by the recent economic recession than residential gas demand. To better understand these trends and to improve the modelling of future TFC gas demand, this project will undertake a full empirical analysis of existing datasets in the residential and I/C sector. In the residential sector, this will involve quantifying empirically the impact of policy impacts such as building regulations and retrofitting measures. In the industry and services sector, the analysis will seek to understand the relationship between economic growth and gas demand at a sub-sectoral level. The initial focus of this project will be a decomposition analysis to understand the drivers of gas demand in the residential sector.

Environmental Research Institute

University College Cork, Lee Road, Cork

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