Project Title: ClimAtt - Climate Change Attribution of Extreme Weather Events for Ireland
Researchers: Dr. Paul Leahy, Dr. Kieran Hickey, Prof. Ger Kiely, Prof. Myles Allen (University of Oxford)
Funding Body: EPA
Period: 2017 - 2019
Media reports frequently link extreme events to climate change, but until relatively recently it was impossible to say if individual weather extremes were influenced by climate change. However, climate modelling has now advanced to the point where probabilistic event risk ‘attribution studies’ are possible, even within days of an actual event occurring.
The EPA-Funded ClimAtt project will review methods and simulation datasets used to support climate change attribution studies. It will identify the best data and methods for attribution studies of Irish extreme weather events. It will attempt to quantify the influence of climate change on specific past events with severe economic or social impacts, identified from a study of historic extreme events in Ireland. An end-to-end attribution study of a selected flood event will be made, coupling a hydrological model to a weather ensemble. Recommendations will be made on datasets, methods and tools for event attribution for Irish conditions.
The Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford, a pioneer of Probabilistic Event Attribution studies, is a partner in this project.