Where Are We? The Patterns and Trends
New Directions? The Policy Perspective
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Notwithstanding high levels of participation in OECD countries, policy attention continues to be focused on issues of access to and success in tertiary education. Policy interests are being shaped by a new context, and they will need to recognise new patterns of participation, pathways and learning. Two conclusions may be drawn from a review of trends in participation in several OECD countries. First, expansion alone has not been sufficient to reduce differences in rates of access of learners from different social and economic groups. While enrolments of students from low social and economic groups have increased, those from groups already well–represented in tertiary education have increased as well. Further growth may yet draw in larger numbers from under–represented groups, but many countries are taking direct steps to improve access. Second, those with qualifications at the tertiary level are more likely than those with only secondary school degrees or diplomas to participate in tertiary education in later adulthood. Thus, differences opened up in the young adult years appear to widen over a lifetime. Importantly, these differences seem to be reinforced along other dimensions, such as gaps in participation in a mushrooming array of non–degree learning options now more widely available outside formal programmes or providers of tertiary education and differences in the use of combinations of qualifications to enhance both learning and employability.
These patterns reflect the emergence of demand as a key driving force, and greater diversity in learning needs, interests and choices. Policies and practices may need to be adapted or strengthened in response. Promising directions may be seen in nearly all OECD countries, and there will be benefit from monitoring experience elsewhere (building on an already substantial range of opportunities for exchange of views and information as well as analyses such as the work undertaken on behalf of the Higher Education Agency). Policies will need to: situate access to and participation in tertiary education in a progression of learning, with attention to improvements in teaching and learning for all at the secondary level and below and to options for and recognition of tertiary-level learning over a lifetime; open up access routes and learning pathways; introduce new ways to organise financing for tertiary education studies, partly through means which enable learners and their families to meet their share of the costs through earmarked savings in advance and extending payments after the completion of such studies; encourage and support providers in adapting teaching and study programmes to student needs and in providing additional academic support for student learning; foster partnerships for learning within and across sectors as well as outside education.
A headline in yesterday's Dublin paper caught my eye: "Tiger confounds predictions", an obvious reference to the continuing strong performance of the Irish economy. That headline serves to highlight an important backdrop to this international conference: strong economic performance, continued restructuring and perhaps wider social change pose major challenges for Ireland, and so also for the role to be played by tertiary education in helping to meet those challenges. This, directly, is why there is –– and should be –– an interest in encouraging and enabling participation by all. There is a second message behind the headline –– unpredictability. The extent, nature and pace of change are now such that conventional concepts of access, participation and opportunity need to be redefined. With growth in participation, we will need to move beyond access, to access to what; beyond participation, to success; beyond degree completion, to learning, knowledge and skills; and all this viewed in the light of an economy and society which could look as different ten years from now as today looks from 1990.
My aim today is to present a comparative view of who is participating in tertiary education. I shall review some of the available data which situate and show the trends, but I will also refer to the gaps where data are insufficient and more needs to be known. I also will identify where countries have undertaken in the course of recent reforms specific policy initiatives to address gaps in access and patterns of participation. Many of these initiatives are recent, and several have already been judged to be too weak. I do not aim to provide a comprehensive review of the comparative policy experience. The reports of Professor Malcolm Skilbeck and Dr. Helen Connell for the HEA, Access and Equity in Higher Education: An International Perspective and Meeting the Equity Challenge in Higher Education: A review of the international experience (both released in mid–May), provide a solid analysis of policy experience and priorities. I offer here a more selective review, partly to show that access and participation policies in a number of OECD countries now have a harder edge and also to identify directions that seem promising in a new context and a very dynamic period.
The OECD's Redefining tertiary education (OECD 1998) argued that the present times called for a new vision:
While all may not agree with the details of the vision, the forces at play suggest a sweeping shift in orientation toward higher levels of participation at the tertiary level, driven strongly by demands reflecting the diverse interests of clients rather than the supply–led, institution–directed expansion witnessed previously.
Tertiary education policies will need to reflect a broader approach that: emphasises inclusiveness; seeks to build up linkages across levels of education and partnerships outside of formal education; and focuses on learning alongside participation, programmes, qualifications or institutions. It is against this vision and broader policy approach that I marshal the available international data and highlight country initiatives.
Comparative data from Education at a glance: OECD indicators 2000 Edition (OECD 2000) and Education policy analysis 1999 (OECD 1999), help to illuminate the key trends:
·Rising levels of educational attainment. By 1998, more than half (51.3 per cent) of the adult population in Ireland had completed upper secondary education and about one–fifth (21.1 per cent) had acquired a tertiary–level qualification. On both indicators, Ireland is somewhat below the OECD averages. (Slide 1).
·Rising rates of participation. The share of the population completing some type of tertiary education continues to increase, following rapid growth in participation in tertiary education from 1990 to 1997. In Ireland, the increase –– an estimated 58 per cent on the OECD measure –– has been among the largest in the OECD area. The data have been analysed to answer a "what if ... " question: what would have been the change in enrolments if participation had followed only the change in the size of the youth cohort? For Ireland, enrolments would have grown by just 9 per cent (compared to the actual increase of 58 per cent). There is in these data, then, an indication of potential improvement in access. As in other OECD countries, much of the enrolment increase over this period is accounted for by an increase in the measured rate of participation. (Slide 2).
·Widening diversity of learners, options and pathways. High rates of entry reflect in several countries substantial enrolment in different types of tertiary education. (Slide 3). In Ireland, net entry rates into university and other tertiary education programmes (such as those offered by institutes of technology) are an estimated 25 and 28 per cent respectively. Diversity is a keyword even in countries without the kind of institutional differentiation found in Ireland, the Netherlands, Finland, Japan and elsewhere. In Australia, Sweden and the United Kingdom, all countries with unitary systems, more varied study programmes and learning options are developed within and among institutions. That same pattern can be seen within sectors of differentiated systems, as for example French universities have introduced alongside conventional study programmes somewhat more applied study options within vocationally–oriented university institutes (JUP). Pathways are also varied: young people presenting only general secondary education –– the conventional access route to the university, accounted for as little as 55 per cent of entrants to first degree studies in Australia. The comparable figures for France and Denmark are 62 per cent and 75 per cent, respectively. (Slide 4). Some students presenting other entry qualifications may have had prior experience in tertiary education. Choices among study options also reflect diversity in pathways. For example, some 69 per cent of those with the technological baccalaureate in France entered vocationally–oriented options of the distinct university institutes of technology (JUT) and advanced technician sections of the lycées (STS); the balance entered the first cycle of university studies or preparatory classes for the grandes écoles. (Slide 5).
With higher rates of secondary school completion and a range of learning options catering to diverse student interests, the result is that, today, a 17-year–old in the OECD area can expect to spend on average 2.3 years in tertiary education over his or her lifetime. Ireland stands at the OECD average. Note that these figures are averages calculated for everyone in successive cohorts, those who attend and those who do not. Moreover, the figures reflect current participation rates. In Ireland, where there is an intention to boost still further secondary school completion, and continued growth and restructuring in the economy are likely to fuel demand for those with advanced skills and knowledge, participation rates might well increase. When disaggregated by gender, the data provide another relatively favourable indicator of access: young women today can expect to spend somewhat more time in tertiary education than the overall average, and young men somewhat less. For Ireland, the figures are 2.5 years and 2.2. years respectively. (Slide 6). That pattern, now found in the majority of OECD countries, prompted one U.S. analyst to pose the question: where are the guys? (Mortenson 1998). More detailed analyses reveals a mixed picture, for example when participation and attainment of men and women are examined by field of study and age.
Against the impressive achievements, there is "another side of growth”.
· A continuing gap in participation rates by social class. Looking broadly at the period from the late 1980s to the mid–1990s and using here country-based data, we found that while participation rates of students from low social and economic groups increased over the period in six countries examined, at average annual rates ranging from 0.6 to 1.5 per centage points, the overall participation rates increased as much or more in all countries excepting the U.S. The net result is that the gap in participation rates has remained about the same. (Slide 7). This conclusion applies to Ireland, at least through the early part of the 1990s (Professor Pat Clancy's continuing analysis of access in Ireland will shed new light on these patterns and trends).
· A widening gap in educational attainment between younger and older adults. In Ireland, less than a third (30 per cent) of those 55 to 64 year-olds, who would have been at the age of secondary school completion 40 years ago, have completed at least upper secondary education. For a younger generation, those 25 to 34 years old, about two–thirds (67 per cent) have attained at least this level. Both rates remain somewhat below the OECD averages of 44 per cent and 72 per cent. The differences apply in Ireland at the level of university degree completion, where the proportions of the respective age cohorts acquiring such qualifications are 5 and 16 per cent. In this case (and for more vocationally-oriented qualifications at the tertiary level, for which data are not shown here), the younger generation now shows rates of attainment that match or exceed the OECD average. (Slide 8).
· Differences among countries in the proportion of adults participating in tertiary education. Under common definitions and measures for nine countries with survey data, the proportions of adults engaged in studies for a tertiary–level qualification ranged from 1 per cent in Belgium (Flanders) to 8 per cent in New Zealand. If we take a wider view of "serving adults" –– that is, counting adults who are following any course or module offered by a tertiary education institution (whether qualification–seeking or not) –– the percentages are higher: 3 per cent in Poland, 7 per cent in the Netherlands, 11 per cent in the U.S. and 18 per cent in New Zealand. (Slide 9). For the purposes of these comparisons, adults are defined as those 30 years of age or older, with at least a full secondary school qualification.
Within those numbers, who is participating? The data show what one analyst (Neave 2000) has described as "the well–known St. Matthew effect": “ To him that hath, it shall be given ...” That is, adults with more education are participating at greater rates in courses leading to qualifications or for other purposes. The tendency is more or less pronounced according to country, with Sweden as the most favourable in relative terms for those without tertiary education qualifications and Canada as the least favourable. Along other dimensions, older adults are less likely to participate than younger adults (with Canada showing the least difference between younger and older adults); women are likely to participate in greater proportions than men (with Belgium showing the least difference between men and women); and blue-collar and low skill workers are less likely to participate than managers (with the U.K. and the U.S. showing the least difference between the two occupational groups).
These statistics go only part way to answering the question: who participates? Two developments warrant closer monitoring in this regard.
First, the volume of participation in tertiary–level learning options apart from formal degree or diploma studies has increased enormously. We know that tertiary education institutions are involved, to some extent, in the non–degree area. In the U.S., awards of so-called "post-baccalaureate certificates" by tertiary education institutions doubled in the 1 990s. But the involvement of other types of providers and entities is large, and apparently growing. By rough estimate, in the ICT field alone, about 1.6 million have now received certificates from corporate providers such as Microsoft, Sun Microsystems, etc. That figure is the equivalent of the annual volume of U.S. bachelors' and associates' degrees (Adelman 2000). We know very little about the backgrounds of those who acquire these certificates. There is very little in the way of formal admission requirements, and assessment often is handled outside of formal tertiary education institutions. A Microsoft survey of its certificate holders revealed that employers paid for about three–fifths of the respondents' courses, while a third said they paid for the courses themselves. The Microsoft survey also shows that the age distribution of certificate holders has declined over time, from an average age in the 30s to an average age in the 20s. A third finding is that the share of certificate recipients holding less than a bachelors' degree has increased (statistics reported by Adelman 2000).
Second, differences in access to options and pathways may also imply differences in access to favourable and well–resourced learning options and pathways. In increasing numbers, students from both high and low socio–economic groups depart from direct pathways toward a qualification. To what extent are students from the lower socio–economic groups foreclosed through admission or resource requirements from choosing among the full range of options and pathways? This adds another dimension to the access issue. Limited country–based data suggests that the choices already lead to differences in access to learning resources. In France, for example, the chances for a student from a low socio–economic group to enter a selective and well–resourced preparatory class from the grandes écoles as compared to a less well–resourced, open access first–cycle course in the university are one in sixteen. For student from higher socio–economic groups, the comparable chances are one in seven. (OECD 1999).
So, notwithstanding the impressive achievement represented by education expansion, not least at tertiary level in the 1990s, gaps in access and participation remain and new questions are raised.
If the forces at play have helped to place gaps in access and participation in the spotlight, countries have reinforced or reshaped existing policies or introduced new policies in response. The field of policy action is wide–ranging and multi–faceted in most countries. What follows is a selective review:
Promoting access to tertiary education. Among the actions in OECD countries, attention can be drawn to policies that aim to:
· strengthen secondary education curricula for all, as in Denmark and the Czech Republic. In Denmark, the reforms have been followed by increased rates of full secondary school completion and rising rates of participation in tertiary–level studies.
· provide academic and career counselling for secondary school students, as in France and Belgium (Flemish Community). In France, detailed information on careers and educational requirements was accompanied by an invitation to students to undertake an informal self assessment of their own strengths, weaknesses and interests. The initiative aimed to direct students toward the most appropriate options (generally, away from university studies in particular fields), and so reduce failure. Former Minister Claude Allegre judged the initiative to have had minimal effect: in the few years after its introduction, the choices among various specialisations showed very little change.
· establish alternative access routes for young and mature age adults, as in the U.K., Sweden, Japan, New Zealand. The NVQ/GNVQ in the U.K. is one example. One U.K. analyst projected that, in the near term, the majority of potential students with access qualifications would hold something other than the traditional academic qualifications.
· finance expanded opportunities and ease the financing of learner contributions toward costs (public funding, as in Ireland; private, via fees with loan/deferred payment in Australia, U.K., N.Z. and earmarked savings in U.S.). Money matters, and in all but a few OBCD countries expansion has been accompanied by more resources –– public and private. Although it is not easy to assess how far particular financing arrangements enable participation from under–served groups, studies in the U.S. and Australia (among others) suggest that access to financing does make a difference.
· open up diverse learning opportunities, other than conventionally organised university degree programmes –– through other tertiary education providers, in private establishments, with work experiences, via open learning or under cross–segment/cross–border arrangements –– as in France, Japan, Australia and Portugal. Private tertiary education institutions in Portugal shoulder about one–fourth of overall enrolment and, according to a survey carried out for the Ministry of Education, cater particularly to adults in urban areas. They have opened up access by offering the study programmes of interest to adults, at times convenient to adult learners.
Promoting success. Access will need to be followed by success in learning and studies, and OECD countries have been actively pursuing measures that seek to encourage and secure that success. Put bluntly, failure is not acceptable. Professor Josep Bricall, former Rector at the University of Barcelona and also the former elected President of the Association of European Universities (CRE), recently pointed out that Australia's West Committee, in Learning for Life (Commonwealth of Australia 1998), put the issue this way:
...the quality of the supply provided must be measured in terms of what students know, understand and can do at the end of their educational experience. ... [T]he most important contribution that the higher education sector should make is to provide a learning environment that will enable its graduates to emerge with the skills and knowledge that will meet the economic, social and environmental challenges of the 21st century.
This is an invitation to ask: to what extent are we now meeting these learning aims, and for whom? In part, we are falling short. A study by the European Access Network, cited by Professor Alberto Amaral in a report prepared for a recent conference organised under the Portuguese Presidency of the Council of the European Union, concluded (Woodrow et al 1998):
Generally, the objectives of the 'good practice proposals' [advanced by institutions] were not about changing the institution, only about changing the non–traditional students.
A range of policies are now seeking to bring about changes within institutions and programmes that will encourage and enable all students to succeed. Among the actions in OECD countries, the following policy initiatives are of interest:
To sum up and conclude:
The expansion of participation in tertiary education –– and particularly growth over the 1990s counts as a major achievement in the OECD area, for which authorities and schools as well as tertiary education institutions and those who work in them can be justifiably proud.
Gaps in participation remain, and new questions arise about evaluating access in a context of large–volume participation and wide diversity in learning options.
Policy initiative aimed at improving access and success is evident throughout the OECD area. Many policies are too new to judge, but some already have been found to be less effective than hoped, and in some cases, re-launched. A common thread running through these policies is a "hard-edged" focus on concrete, measurable results: access, learning, programme completion, employment destinations and experiences.
What now seems clear is that no single, targeted policy can address the broad issues of access and success. Policies conceived and implemented in the perspective of a wider "lifelong" and "tertiary–wide" vision offer promise for improvement. Such an approach calls for greater coherence among policies, sometimes spanning defined policy fields; further development of partnership within and outside the tertiary education sector; and more attention to learning for all students.
I conclude with a view advanced in the OECD's Redefining tertiary education:
[B]oth individual aspirations and employer and enterprise interests are giving rise to pressures for continuing expansion, inevitably from previously underserved groups. Changes are occurring and more are required to meet the education needs of these new waves of students.
Principal Administrator, Directorate for Education, Employment, Labour and Social Affairs, Organisation for Economic Co–operation and Development, Paris. The views expressed are mine. They do not implicate the Organisation nor the countries concerned. Return to Text
Adelman, Cliff (2000), "A parallel universe, expanded: Certification in the information technology guild" (processed); a shorter version appears under the title "A parallel universe", in Change 32 (May/June), pp. 20 – 29.
Commonwealth of Australia (1998). Learning for life. Review of Higher Education Financing and Policy (West Review), Canberra.
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