12 November 1998
Great uncertainty seems to surround the question of how Russia will feed herself over the coming winter months. While recently published figures from the Food and Agricultural Organisation of the UN (FAO) suggest that Russia has an adequate aggregate supply of food to meet the people's needs, there is concern that "internal trade barriers" could disrupt the supply of food locally. In other words, the movement of food from one region to the next is likely to be restricted by the hoarding instincts of the provincial governments.
The past twelve months have been disastrous for Russia. A combination of poor weather, severe floods, droughts and fires have devastated agriculture, causing grain yields to drop 43% from last year. On top of that, a serious blight afflicted the potato crop in several regions, ruining yields in the main dietary staple of millions of Russian people.
But the agricultural disasters only became a crisis following the economic collapse and devaluation of the ruble in August. Many remote parts of the country have been dependant on imports of both food and fuel, and with the sudden collapse of purchasing power supplies have dried up. Observers also fear for the isolated populations in the north and north-east of the country, already ice-bound for the winter, where the logistical challenges of delivering food are especially severe.
Demographically, those most likely to suffer will be the urban poor, the elderly, the unemployed, orphans, the disabled and other socially and economically marginal groups. The International Red Cross and other humanitarian agencies are gearing up to cope with a major crisis, with the IRC alone targeting some 1.4 million of the most needy in 15 regions. Still, recent figures released by the Russian government put 44 million people below the official poverty line, meaning that many more people will likely need assistance over the hard winter months.
While the Russian government has downplayed talk of an impending emergency, deals have nonetheless been struck with the US government to receive food shipments. Last week, a tentative programme was arranged for the USDA to provide $500 million worth of food aid for Russia's most vulnerable citizens. Only a few days before, Deputy Prime Minister Gebbady Kulik had said it was "too early" to state what Russia's food needs might be for this year. Even on the day the agreement was signed, an agricultural economist from the government said Russia might not need any food aid at all.
The proposed arrangement would see 1.5 million tons of grain given as a donation by the US government, to be sold by the government through the markets at low prices for the needy. A further 1.5 million tons of food (including maize, soy-bean cakes, wheat, meat and dried milk) is to be purchased by the Russians under a low-interest 20-year food loan. Some of this will likely go for use as feed to help boost the production of livestock in the country. Humanitarian agencies are expected to receive an additional 100,000 tons from the US government for their relief efforts. While offering good terms to the Russians in striking the deal, US officials were insistent on safeguards to ensure that the food would get to the needy. The condition follows previous experiences of food aid following the collapse of the Soviet Union, when losses to profiteering and the black-market were substantial.
Meanwhile, the Russian government still seems reticent to discuss the matter publicly or provide international agencies with clear information. Both the EU and US have sent teams out to the country to try and assess the gravity of the impending crisis. Although humanitarian agencies estimate that severe shortages will be felt by Christmas, the extent of the needs of the poorest can right now only be guessed at. United States Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman has said that some Russian officials have privately admitted to him that the country's needs may in fact be far more then the current US package provides.
The Russian people are renowned for their remarkable ability to withstand hardship, but the current indicators are not good. The country is suffering under a devastating economic crisis in a year when nature was also unremittingly cruel. As winter tightens its grip on the nation, time is running out to get food to those who will need it the most. The logistics of mounting relief operations in such a vast country are enormous, and humanitarian groups worry that unless steps are taken to set up the systems of delivery and distribution now, it could be too late. Unfortunately, however, the government seems unwilling or unable to openly confront the looming crisis, though at least some steps are now being taken to ask for help. The coming months are sure to test the limits of the Russian people's famous resilience.
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