International Famine Centre Famine News.
Nexus of Early Warning Systems (N.E.W.S.)
The N.E.W.S. (Nexus of Early Warning Systems) is a monthly
publication aimed at decision-makers in Ireland, on the European
stage, and in the wider world, with an immediacy which comes through
the use of new technology. The N.E.W.S provides monthly summaries of
food security situations in selected developing countries. Each
month, researchers at the famine centre compile food security
information from the Internet and the World Wide Web. Currently, a
combination of an approximate twenty five web sites and situation
reports from various active organisations are accessed.
Food insecurity alone is not a satisfactory indicator of famine,
thus problems such as conflict and unfavourable climate are also
discussed. Once this information is collected, the editorial team
decide which countries are facing problems of food insecurity.
N.E.W.S Vol.1 Issue 4 May 1999
Published to Web: 08/05/99
The Horn.
Great Lakes.
West Africa.
Southern Africa.
Central Africa
East Asia.
Ethiopia/Eritrea
Agricultural and trade
activities have been seriously affected by the Eritrean-Ethiopian
conflict. The food situation in border areas has become difficult,
particularly for some 100,000 internally displaced people who have
fled from the conflict and 60,000 who have returned to Eritrea from
Ethiopia abandoning their farms and possessions. Despite Ethiopia's
bumper grain harvest in 1998, the food situation is serious for some
3 million vulnerable people, including pastoralists in areas affected
by dry weather and those displaced by the conflict (FAO
21 April 99).
In Ethiopia eastern portions of the northern highlands received
less rain than anticipated for the belg (secondary) season. The
scattered showers gave poor coverage to areas suitable for belg
agriculture. Therefore belg production in eastern northern highlands
is expected to be poor. As a result 330,000 persons in North Wello
will require assistance. In the southern and southeastern lowlands
rainfall was good and conditions have improved (FEWS
29 April 99).
The WFP has announced plans to launch a $15.4 million operation
in April to feed approximately 268,000 displaced Eritreans in three
southern provinces. The WFP will work closely with the Eritrean
Relief and Refugees Commission (ERREC) to provide monthly rations of
cereals, pulses, oil and salt to recipients at rural distribution
centres set up throughout the three Provinces (WFP
21 April 99).
Two major British non government organisations, Oxfam
International and Save the Children Fund along with the Eritrean
Relief and Rehabilitation Committee are planning a joint assessment
in the south of the country where up to a quarter of a million people
have been affected by conflict (OCHA
30 April 99).
The United Nation's special representative for Africa, Algerian
diplomat Mohammed Sahnoun is to travel to Addis Ababa to help mediate
an end to the 11-month war between Ethiopia and Eritrea (AFP
22 April 99).
According to the Ethiopian President, Eritrea must declare a
withdrawal of its troops from all Ethiopian land and give a timeframe
for the implementation of the withdrawal. Ethiopia wants an OAU peace
plan wholly implemented, but will not accept the plan until all
Eritrean troops are off Ethiopian soil (PANA
28 April 99). The Chairman of the Organisation of African Unity
(OAU) is to visit both Eritrea and Ethiopia this week to try to
settle the border dispute between the two countries (AFP
03 May 99).
Meanwhile Sudan and Eritrea have signed an agreement aimed at
settling the dispute between the two countries. The agreement is to
be followed by joint committee talks on disputed issues. Eritrean
authorities have invited the Sudanese main opposition group who are
based in Eritrea to a meeting to discuss future relations. The
meeting is to take place later this month (OCHA
03 May 99).
Return to Headlines
Somalia
As a result of recurrent crop failure as well as insecurity in
the south of Somalia, it is estimated that one million people are at
risk of food shortage and 300, 000 could face starvation. Puntland in
the north and Bay, Bakool and Gedo in the south are worst affected.
Some families are reported to have already left their homes. Water
shortages further complicate the situation. Save the Children Fund
(SCF) is monitoring the situation while continuing a community base
agriculture programme serving 9,000 families in the southern Belet
Weyn area (SCF
04 March 99 ).
The food supply situation in Somalia is becoming more and more
serious according to organisations working in the country. WFP who
are trying to increase food distributions are short $15 million on
their planned budget for the country (OCHA
12 April 99).
FAO reports six consecutive poor harvests caused by adverse
weather and civil strife have resulted in severe malnutrition and
even death. Economic activity has been totally disrupted and some of
the population has had to move in search of food and to avoid
insecure areas (FAO
21 April 99).
An EU donation of food to World Food Programme (WFP) is providing
100,000 people in the Puntland region of northeast Somalia with
urgently needed assistance. The Puntland area mostly inhabited by
pastoralists has been severely affected by drought with a resultant
detrimental effect on the livestock herds. In spite of insecurity WFP
has distributed over 11,500 tons of relief food (WFP
28 April 99).
A state of emergency has been declared by authorities in
Puntland. Additional assistance is required as water and pasture
conditions continue to deteriorate. Good rains have occurred in
southern Somalia and Somaliland, which has a positive impact on the
water supply and pasture land (FEWS
29 April 99).
The Somalia Aid Coordination Body has recommended the withdrawal
of expatriate staff from the Lower Shabelle region because of ongoing
insecurity (OCHA
30 April 99).
Inter-clan fighting spread in Mogadishu on the 29th, with a
reported death toll of at least 23 people. The fighting occurred
between Murursade clan gunmen and those of the Joint Islamic Courts
(JIC) in south Mogadishu (AFP
29 April 99).
There were at least 23 people were killed and 45 wounded when
militiamen of Hussein Mohamed Aidid recaptured the south-central town
of Baidoa from rivals on May 2nd. The Rahanwein Resistance Army
(RRA), had seized the town from Aidid's forces the previous day
(AFP
02 May 99).
Seven people have died of cholera and 40 others are suffering
from the disease in Dinsor a town in the southern Bakol region. A
local doctor has reported that many of the 40 patients are close to
death and appealed for medicines (AFP
21 April).
In a BBC interview, Ali Mahdi Mohammed, one of the main faction
leaders in Somalia, said politicians had achieved nothing positive
for Somalia since the overthrow of Mohammed Siad Barre eight years
ago. He said he feared that the establishment of new regional
administrations might prevent the country ever coming together again
under a central government (BBC
April 22)
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Sudan
The FAO has predicted that 2.36 million people will require
emergency food assistance in South Sudan in the coming months
(FAO
21 April 99).
Operation Lifeline Sudan (OLS) have distributed seeds and tools,
but will not reach all target areas due to insecurity. Bahr El Ghazal
region remains the most vulnerable with many families in need of food
assistance (FEWS
26 March 99).
Over 1.15 million beneficiaries received 12,866 MT of food aid
from WFP during March. WFP could not distribute a complete food
basket due to a shortage of pulses, vegetable oil, salt and corn soy
blend (CSB). Food insecurity in the area is primarily due to a poor
1998 crop harvest, increased competition over food sources including
wild foods, limited access to markets and reduced mobility due to
insecurity in the north of the county. A government (GoS) cease-fire
in South Sudan started on 15 April while the SPLM extended their
ceasefire in Bahr el Ghazal for another three months. Peace
negotiations have however been postponed (WFP
27 April 99).
Concern Worldwide who carried out a nutrition survey in January
reported the crude mortality rate of under 5's to be 2.3 per 10,000
per day. This was attributed to malaria and diarrhoea, indicating the
need for improved health services as well as supplementary nutrition
interventions (FEWS
26 March 99).
The US has revised its unilateral trading sanctions against Sudan
to allow for Sudan's importation of food and medicines. According to
AFP, this revision demonstrates a change in attitude towards
sanctions rather than a policy shift (AFP
28 Apr 99). However, the Sudan Peoples Liberation Army (SPLA) are
critical of the move because any indication that the US is relaxing
its attitude towards the government is alarming to them (BBC
29 April 99).
Return to Headlines
Uganda
Insecurity in northern Uganda has resulted in the displacement of
400,000 people who are now dependent on food aid in Gulu and Kitgum
districts. Poor harvests have resulted in food shortages are in areas
of Rakai District in the south of the country (FAO
21 April 99).
ICRC has recently been assisting 62,000 displaced families with
distribution of 750 tonnes seeds, 62,000 vegetable kits and 66,000
hoes which will enable the families to have at least some harvest
this crop season (ICRC
9 April 99).
Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebels have entered the western
Bundibugyo district from Democratic Republic of Congo leading to a
deterioration in the security in the area. Aid agencies have
withdrawn their staff until the situation improves (OCHA
22 April 99) .
As a result of insecurity an estimated 32,000 people have been
displaced. An assessment carried out in March showed that there was
no need for food assistance at the moment (FEWS
March 26 99). However, the WFP has resumed food aid deliveries in
western Uganda following security problems. The relief food will
provide for 30,000 people for one month (OCHA
17 April 99).
In Libya a peace agreement has been signed by the presidents of
Uganda, Chad and DRC. The rebel group from DRC were not present and
other countries involved in the conflict did not sign the agreement.
The peace accord includes deployment of an African peacekeeping force
to the conflict affected areas in DRC. It also promotes settlement of
the conflict through peaceful means (AFP
24 April 99).
Return to Headlines
Rwanda
In Rwanda, latest production estimates indicate a substantial
increase in total food production of the recently harvested 1999 A
season crop. However, the food situation continues to be
unsatisfactory in the northern and northwestern prefectures affected
by persistent insecurity, particularly in the prefectures of Gisenyi
and Ruhengeri. Of the estimated 600,000 internally displaced people
living in camps, approximately half have been resettled in new sites.
International food assistance continues to be needed for these IDPs
(GIEWS
April 1999). The Japanese government will contribute $4.53
million for development activities in Rwanda through UNDP's Trust
Fund for Rwanda. This is the fourth such contribution from Japan to
the fund, which has raised over $100 million from donors for social
and economic development programmes (UNDP
26 Apr 1999).
The FAO have described the food supply situation in Rwanda as
"precarious" saying efforts to increase food production are hampered
by persistent insecurity, sporadic violence and bad weather.
Prolonged dry spells in Rwanda during the just-ended growing season
reduced crop yields while insecurity in parts continues to disrupt
food production activities (FAO
21 Apr 1999).
The Rwandan authorities say they want to enlist soldiers to help
fight a plague of army worms that are reported to have devoured large
areas of cereal crops in three prefectures. The agriculture minister,
Ephraim Kabayija, has appealed to Rwandans to report any new
sightings of the worms (BBC
April 23 1999).
Human Rights Watch have called on the rebel Congolese Rally for
Democracy to immediately reverse an order directing Rwandan refugees
to return home. On April 27, the governor of North Kivu reportedly
ordered the estimated 100,000 Rwandan refugees living in that
province to go home within fifteen days. The governor also threatened
that Congolese nationals who continue to harbour refugees after two
weeks will be considered criminals (HRW
29 Apr 1999).
The Rwandan government has rejected the agreement announced in
Libya on Sunday aimed at ending the nine-month war in the Democratic
Republic of Congo. Rwanda, one of the main supporters of the rebel
forces, said it had not been consulted about the agreement, which it
described as null and void (April
21 1999).
Return to Headlines
Democratic
Republic of Congo (DRC)
An increase in the price of oil which had a run off effect to
increase the cost of public transport has been met with
demonstrations against the President, Laurent Kabila. This increase
comes on top of an already disrupted and fragile economy. Reports
have been made of increasing malnutrition amongst children and a lack
of food amongst the general population (OCHA
16 Apr 1999).
The food supply situation is difficult in DRC and is quickly
deteriorating especially in Kinshasa. The price of food has risen
dramatically. A recent survey of families on the outskirts of
Kinshasa found that 90 percent of daily household expenditures go on
food. Outflow of food from Kinshasa to Brazzaville has further
complicated food availability (FAO
21 April 99).
President Laurent Kabila and Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni
have signed a ceasefire agreement following a meeting in Sirte, Libya
The agreement provides for the deployment of peacekeeping forces in
the region, withdrawal of foreign troops and urges dialogue in DRC
with the participation of all sides (OCHA
23 April 99).
President Frederick Chiluba of Zambia, who is mediator to the
conflict on behalf of the Southern African Development Community
(SADC), will make a visit to Libya to discuss methods of ending the
conflict in the DRC with the Libyan leader Muamar Kadhafi. The
meeting is intended to complement the talks which already took place
there and resulted in Uganda and DRC presidents signing a peace
accord. However, the opposition rebels have not attended the talks to
date (PANA
03 May 99).
A national debate to take place in Nairobi in mid May and
organised by the DRC government is to go ahead even if rebel
opposition groups do not attend. It is intended that the meeting
would bring together the government, opposition parties, rebels,
civil society and observers. The UN, EU, OAU, various countries and
regional bodies are expected to participate as observers (OCHA
15 April 99).
The World Health Organization (WHO) reported that there was an
outbreak of a haemorrhagic illness in two towns in the north east of
DRC. Medicins sans Frontieres investigated the illness and sent blood
samples to Johannesburg for analysis. It is not thought to be Ebola.
Since the beginning of the year, 68 cases of viral haemorrhagic fever
has been recorded resulting in 63 deaths, according to WHO (WHO
03 May 99).
Return to Headlines
Guinea
Bissau
Continuing violence and widespread insecurity threaten the 1999
food outlook in Guinea-Bissau. No crop assessment mission could be
undertaken due to insecurity. Satellite imagery indicated that
rainfall was generally above average in August and September allowing
a satisfactory desalination of swamp rice fields. The food supply
situation improved with the harvesting of rice in late 1998, but
recent fighting caused new population displacements (FAO
21 Apr 1999).
The European Union has disbursed 650,000 euro (700,000 US
dollars) in the form of emergency humanitarian aid to populations
suffering from meningitis and the surveillance of other epidemics in
Guinea Bissau and Southern Senegal. By last weekend (23rd April),
295,000 doses of vaccines had been sent to the vaccination area in
Guinea Bissau, where 365 cases had been detected. The vaccination
campaign is expected to continue for three to four months (PANA
28 Apr 1999).
Prime Minister Francisco Fadul of Guinea-Bissau said he and
President Diouf of Senegal had agreed to an "immediate resumption of
cooperation", and put an end to frosty relations between the two
countries. Relations hit an all-time low when Guinea Bissau's
self-styled "Military Junta", led by the sacked Armed Forces Chief of
Staff General Ansumane Mane, tried to drive Guinean Bissau President
Joao Bernardo Vieira from power. Vieira appealed for, and received,
Senegalese and Guinean military help to put down the eight-month
rebellion which ended with a peace accord last November. Fadul,
backed by the army rebels, assumed office on 20 February to lead an
interim government until general elections later this year (UN
OCHA 30 Apr 1999).
The International Campaign to Ban Landmines have reported a sharp
decrease in the production of antipersonnel landmines, and exports
have fallen to virtually zero. Guinea Bissau is one of three
countries that have used landmines after signing a global treaty to
ban their use (HRW
3 May 1999).
The United Nations is hosting a conference of international
donors to help Guinea Bissau recover from eight months of civil war,
which ended earlier this year. The UN hopes the two-day meeting in
Geneva will raise tens of millions of pounds to reconstruct
infrastructure destroyed in the fighting, and finance the holding of
new elections (BBC
May 4).
Return to Headlines
Liberia
Food production in Liberia has reportedly increased since 1997.
The main factors which contributed to the increase in production
include an expansion in planted area as a result of the return of
large numbers of farm families to their homes, increased yields due
to greater access to NGO-supplied inputs (especially seeds and tools)
and improved crop husbandry practices. However, many of the food
crops are highly perishable due to the lack of storage and poor
marketing capacity of the farmers. Food assistance is delivered
throughout almost the entire country and an improvement in the
nutritional status of the population is reported but the country
relies almost entirely on humanitarian assistance. On the basis of an
estimated population of about 2.8 million in 1999 (depending on
repatriation rates), the FAO estimated that Liberia will need to
import 155,000 tonnes of cereals to meet its consumption requirements
(GIEWS
April 1999).
The Liberia Refugee Agency (LRRRC) has called on the government
to take measures to stop the looting of property belonging to
humanitarian agencies in Liberia. The agency has voiced its concern
on the looting of property of donor agencies by security officers
(UNOCHA
30 April 1999). President Charles Taylor has said government
security forces will be punished for looting UN warehouses and
vehicles last week in Voinjama, near Liberia's border with Guinea. UN
aid agencies accused government troops of looting 13 UN relief
vehicles and warehouses following last week's predawn attack on
Voinjama, 260 kilometres (155 miles) north of Monrovia, by
unidentified armed men (AFP
29 Apr 1999).
Return to Headlines
Sierra
Leone
The FAO have reported that continuing violence and widespread
insecurity threaten the 1999 food outlook in Sierra Leone. Freetown
is still suffering from severe food and fuel shortages following
January's rebel invasions (FAO
April 21). Some 117,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) have
been registered at six locations in western Freetown and limited food
distributions are underway. Aid agencies' warehouses in Freetown have
been looted and humanitarian aid distributions remain very limited.
If insecurity continues, most scheduled rehabilitation activities,
including seed and tool distribution and technical assistance, will
be delayed or remain limited. As a result, agricultural production in
the coming season, starting in May, is likely to be reduced.
Despite favourable conditions, the area planted in 1998 is
estimated to have been substantially lower than in 1997 due to
insecurity, and estimates point to a cereal output of about 400 000
tonnes, which is about 15 percent lower. Sierra Leone's cereal import
requirement for 1999 is estimated at 290 000 tonnes, including 140
000 tonnes of food aid (GIEWS
April 1999).
Talks between Foday Sankoh, the founder of the Revolutionary
United Front (RUF), and other RUF rebel leaders were initiated on
April 22. The objective of these talks was to set out an agenda for
possible peace negotiations with the government (Refugees
International 4 May 1999). The government of Sierra Leone says it
will only agree to a ceasefire with rebel forces if the United
Nations sends monitors to make sure that any truce holds. The
ceasefire was proposed over the weekend by the UN special envoy,
Francis Okello, and the West African regional grouping, ECOWAS
(BBC
May 4, 1999). In a BBC interview, Mr Okello said it was important
to ensure that hostilities did not get in the way of the peace talks.
But observers say a ceasefire would enable the rebels to retain
control of diamond-rich regions in the north and east (BBC
May 4, 1999).
Human Rights Watch (HRW) has called on all parties to the civil
war in Sierra Leone not to recruit children as soldiers and to
demobilize all children in their ranks. As the parties prepare to
enter peace negotiations to end the eight year-long civil war, the
human rights organization urged special attention to the thousands of
children who have been used as combatants in the conflict. UNICEF
reports that almost 3000 children have been reported missing or
abducted since the rebels' January offensive and are presumed to have
been abducted by the rebels (HRW
4 May 1999).
Return to Headlines
Angola
According to GIEWS, the food supply outlook in Angola is very
bleak. Intense fighting has been reported in the major cereal growing
areas of the centre (Bie and Huambo) extending to the north and east.
This has resulted in many farmers abandoning their land to seek
refuge, either internally or in neighbouring countries. The number of
internally displaced in need of urgent assistance is now estimated at
over 600,000 people, largely concentrated in the provinces of Huambo,
Bie, Malanje, Huila and Uige (GIEWS
April 1999). The WFP has appealed for $8 million to help airlift
food to the highland cities of Kuito, Huambo and Luena. Roads to
these areas have been cut off by fighting and food supplies are
running low. Kuito, Huambo and Luena have been overwhelmed by massive
numbers of displaced people fleeing fighting in surrounding areas
(BBC
April 30, 1999). The UN Humanitarian Assistance Coordination Unit
(UCAH) said a Rapid Response Group (RRG) had been set up in Luena. It
was formed by the WFP and SCF with government assistance "to enable
swift humanitarian assistance to the new internally displaced persons
(IDPs) who were arriving in the town" (OCHA
27 Apr 1999).
A recently published Oxfam report predicts that fighting between
UNITA and government forces will intensify during the dry season (May
- September) in a concerted effort to gain control of land. This will
have serious repercussions on the displaced community throughout the
year (Oxfam
27 Apr 1999).
Return to Headlines
Congo-Brazzaville
An upsurge in fighting in Congo-Brazzaville has seriously
decreased the food supply resulting in sharp increases in food
prices. The fighting has also caused huge population displacement in
the capital, Brazzaville. There are 31,000 displaced people in the
northern part of the city who are totally dependent on humanitarian
aid. There is also a serious need for humanitarian assistance in the
South of the country in the Pool region (GIEWS
April 1999). The BBC have reported that the military have carried
out attacks on rebel positions in Pool after accusations that the
rebels were executing civilians and using civilian hostages as human
shields (BBC
April 27, 1999).
Return to Headlines
North
Korea
The people of North Korea are facing their most difficult months
of the year, the "lean period". From April to June, there is no
harvest left for general distribution. According to the UN
Humanitarian Coordinator, David Morton, the Public Distribution
System (PDS) has no grain left for distribution. The PDS distribute
"alternative foods" during the lean period, but these have very
little nutritional content and are basically a stomach filler. Such
foods can often cause digestive problems, particularly among children
and elderly. The most serious food shortages are in the northeastern
provinces of North and South Hamgyong where it was colder than in the
south and there was much less agricultural land than in the southwest
and a shorter growing season.
The WFP have appealed for $260 million to help feed eight million
people in North Korea for a year from July 1 in a new emergency
operation. The current operation for 6.7 million people at a cost of
$345 million ends on June 30 (WFP
27 April 1999).
Christian Lemaire, coordinator for the UN Development Programme
in North Korea, has warned that unless donor countries took a more
long-term strategy, North Korea could become a food aid junkie as its
agriculture sector rotted. He said that North Koreans must be given
every assistance to produce their own food. According to Lemaire,
reports that up to three million people had died since 1995 were
exaggerated (AFP
23 Apr 1999). ADRA, along with seven other humanitarian relief
and development agencies are to purchase 1,100 tons (1,000 metric
tons) of potato seed and oversee its planting in May on farms in a
southeastern North Korea province
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