Those advertisements which your lordship imparted to me, and the like, I hold to be no more certain to make judgment upon than a patient's water to a physician: therefore for me upon one water to make a judgment, were indeed like a foolish bold mountebank, or Dr. Birket, yet, for willing duty's sake, I will set down to your lordship what opinion sprung in my mind upon that I read. The letter from the council there, leaning to distrust, I do not much rely upon, for three causes. First, because it is always
p.18both the grace and the safety from blame of such a council to err in caution: whereunto add, that it may be they, or some of them, are not without envy towards the person who is used in treating the accord. Next, because the time of this treaty hath no show of dissimulation, for that Tyrone is now in no straits, but like a gamester that will give over because he is a winner, not because he hath no more money in his purse.
Lastly, I do not see but those articles whereon they ground their suspicion, may as well proceed out of fear as out of falsehood, for the retaining of the dependence of the protracting the admission of a sheriff, the refusing to give his son for hostage, the holding from present repair to Dublin, the refusing to go presently to accord, without including O'Donnell, and others his associates, may very well come of a guilty reservation, in case he should receive hard measure, and not out of treachery; so as if the great person be faithful, and that you have not here some present intelligence of present succours from Spain, for the expectation whereof Tyrone would win time, I see no deep cause of distrusting the cause if it be good. And for the question, her Majesty seemeth to me a winner three ways: first, her purse shall have rest: next, it will divert the foreign designs upon that place: thirdly, though her Majesty is like for a time to govern precario in the north, and be not in true command in better state there than before, yet, besides the two respects of ease of charge, and advantage of opinion abroad, before mentioned, she shall have a time to use her princely policy in two points: in the one, to weaken by division and disunion of the heads; the other, by recovering and winning the people by justice, which of all other causes is the best. Now for the Athenian question, you discourse well, Quid igitur agendum est? I will shoot my fool's bolt, since you will have it so. The Earl of Ormond to be encouraged and comforted above all things, the garrisons to
p.19be instantly provided for; for opportunity makes a thief: and if he should mean never so well now, yet such an advantage as the breaking of her Majesty's garrisons, might tempt a true man. And because he may as well waver upon his own inconstancy, as upon occasion, and want of variableness is never restrained but with fear, I hold it necessary to be menaced with a strong war; not by words, but by musters and preparations of forces here, in case the accord proceed not; but none to be sent over lest it disturb the treaty, and make him look to be overrun as soon as he hath laid down arms. And, but that your lordship is too easy to pass, in such cases, from dissimulation to verity, I think, if your lordship lent your reputation in this case, it is to pretend, that if not a defensive war, as in times past, but a full re-conquest of those parts of the country be resolved on, you would accept the charge, I think it would help to settle him, and win you a great deal of honour gratis. And that which most properly concerneth this action, if it prove a peace, I think her Majesty shall do well to cure the root of the disease, and to profess by a commission of peaceable men chiefly of respect and countenance, the reformation of abuses, extortions and injustices there, and to plant a stronger and surer government than heretofore, for the ease and protection of the subject; for the removing of the sword, or government in arms, from the Earl of Ormond, or the sending of a deputy, which will eclipse it, if peace follow, I think unseasonable. Lastly, I hold still my opinion, both for your better information, and your fuller declaration of your care, and evermore meriting service, that your lordship have a set conference with the persons I named in my former writing. I rest,
At your lordship s service,Fr. Bacon